Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Tuesday, 12 December 2017

Melt down

Prices are down

Capital city dwelling prices declined marginally in the September quarter, down by -0.2 per cent on the supply of new apartments, although dwelling prices were +8.3 per cent higher than a year earlier, taking the total stock value up to nearly $6.8 trillion (click charts to expand). 


The quarterly decline was driven by Sydney (-1.4 per cent), with the harbour city's annual growth now slowing to +9.4 per cent. 

The fastest growing markets over the year were Hobart (+13.8 per cent) and Melbourne (+13.2 per cent). 

Hobart's index has now outperformed that of Sydney since the inception of this index in 2003, while Melbourne has now comprehensively beaten off all comers. 

By far the softest market was Darwin, with prices down by another -6.3 per cent over the year.

Adelaide (+4.8 per cent) and Brisbane (+3.5 per cent) recorded steady annual growth.


Drilling into the Sydney figures, APRA's intervention is once again clear, this time with a marginal correction in both house (-1.3 per cent) and attached dwelling prices (-1.4 per cent) in the quarter. 


Nationally the median dwelling price declined by $1,200 in the third quarter to $681,100, due to a decline in New South Wales (although it is much higher over the past year, up from $637,400). 


Finally there are now just shy of 10 million dwellings in Australia.

The preliminary figures for New South Wales are clearly low for the quarter, which can happen, but the one thing to take away from these figures is the clear lack of overbuild in Victoria. 


Building activity has been supremely strong in Victoria over the past half-decade, but it has simply been overwhelmed by the even faster increase in headcount.