Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Thursday, 3 August 2017

Dollar may need to fall...

Surplus misses

The trade balance on goods and services comfortably missed expectations by coming in at a seasonally adjusted surplus estimated at $856 million in June.

Imports were up by 2 per cent, while there were a few other one-off factors driving the monthly decline. Still, it's another surplus, which is not to be sniffed at given what has gone before. 

Although there won't be much in the way of a contribution to GDP growth here in the second quarter, market forecasts anticipate a strong +1.2 per cent gain in real retail sales for the three months to June to be reported tomorrow morning. 


Iron ore and coal exports will recover in due course after a soft-ish showing this time around, but the interesting thing to note here is LNG exports bounding forth to record highs, with plenty more in the post where this came from. 


With coking coal prices having spiked lately and LNG export volumes ramping up, Queensland is set to enjoy a surge in royalties and a widening trade surplus. 


Indeed, for all the talk of a mining boom that was making us 'poorer', export values are powering forth to fresh heights by the month. 


One cautionary note is the strong currency may be threatening to complicate the adjustment.


Indeed, the Aussie dollar ran all the way up from around 73 US cents in May to above 80 cents in recent days, flying in the face of a deluge of predictions to the contrary. So that could be a proverbial pain in the behind.