Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Thursday, 1 June 2017

Retail reawakens after the Cyclone

Retail up sharply in April

After an epic amount of hand-wringing about the reported 0.1 per cent decline in retail turnover in Cyclone-affected March (revised out slightly this month), retail turnover surged 1 per cent higher in April to a new high of $25.9 billion.

Retail turnover is now 3.1 per cent higher over the past year. Still soft, granted, but not quite as dramatically so. 

Around the traps

After an uncomfortably large drop last month, Queenslanders enjoyed April much more as the literal storm clouds receded, and led the charge with a 2.4 per cent increase in the month. 

With the state level figures now righting themselves, it has clearly been the resources states - Western Australia and the Northern Territory - that have pulled back the national averages for consumption.

I'm not sure if people had post-Cyclone parties up the eastern seaboard, but liquor retail was the biggest outperforming industry sub-group in the month, posting a 3.6 per cent gain in turnover. 

There was also some welcome respite for department stores with a 2.5 per cent increase in the month following a truly dismal run. 

Penultimately, cafes, restaurants, and takeaways continue to mop up a record share of disposable incomes.

And finally, online retail accounted for 3.4 per cent of total retail turnover this month.

The wrap

The first quarter of 2017 was clearly a sluggish one for the Australian economy.

However, the retail figures at least suggest that the second quarter may have gotten off to a better start, bouncing back strongly after the weather-beaten March.

It will be interesting to see whether coal export volumes can produce similar results.

Here's hoping.