Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Thursday, 12 January 2017

Temporary visa holders soar towards 2 million

Students drive visa growth

There has been a lot of misleading commentary about population growth dropping off a cliff, and so on.

It really isn't, but the composition of growth is sure changing.

I explained here back in 2015 why international students would be the key driver of growth going forward.

It's a key reason why so many bloggers and analysts got their supply and demand ratios so muddled last year, particularly in Melbourne where population growth broke all known records in 2016, but also in Sydney, and to a much lesser extent Brisbane. 

The latest figures from the DIBP confirmed a walloping increase of 90,380 temporary visa holders over the year to September 2016, with a crunching increase in student visa holders of 45,070 over the year.

Remember many international students are expected to go to secure Australian residency through other visa classes.

There was also a massive 51.4 per cent increase in temporary graduate visa holders, easily eclipsing the relatively small decline in skilled 457 visas (that form the basis of most doomsday scenarios).

Source: DIBP

By far the greatest number of temporary visa holders were Kiwis on the visa subclass 444, increasing by 2.3 per cent to 677,030, dispelling the narrative that all Kiwis are heading home.

Total temporary entrants will rise towards 2.1 million by the end of 2017.

Thanks to the visa subclass 444, some 34.5 per cent of temporary visa holders are New Zealanders.

However, the real growth sector is in student visas, particularly to Chinese and Indian students.

Most international students head to institutions in Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane - in that order.

As expected, the insatiable demand from international students will keep on keeping on, delivering a substantial boost for population growth in those three capital cities through 2016 and beyond.