Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Wednesday, 4 November 2015

Trade to boost GDP

GDP boost

Australia's GDP grew by just 0.2 per cent in the second quarter, but today's International Trade figures implied a possible contribution of up to a full percentage point for the third quarter, which should be a welcome boost to the annual rate of growth in the economy.

Nevertheless the trade result was the 18th deficit on the bounce, and was "less bad" rather than good.

In any case, following a positive revision to the August figures the cumulative seasonally adjusted deficit for the three months to Sepember of $7.5 billion was a considerable improvment on the dismal deficit of $10.6 billion recorded for the preceding quarter.


Not much to write home about for the bulk commodities, with a moderate rebound in iron ore export values in the month to $4.48 billion (which will be reversed next in the month or two anyway)...

...with China remaining the dominant trade partner, accounting for 34 per cent of merchandise exports.

Queensland exports ramp up

The only state with a favourable trend for export values is now Queensland which recorded its best result here since November 2011, with LNG export voliumes expected to be a significant contributor over the next year or two.

The monthly trade balances by state were a similar story, with Queensland now nicely back in surplus to the tune of $1.4 billion.


Finally, you're looking to make a fast buck in property - not something I'd ever recommend - then you might snout out a few of the tourist markets, with the lower Aussie dollar providing a welcome boost to the tourism sector.

The wrap

Overall, while hardly anything to get exciting about this was at least a significant improvement for the third quarter which should see Australia's GDP result coming in stronger than we saw in Q2. 

My detailed chart packs revealed some signs that the lower dollar is helping services exports to trend up nicely - and year-on-year total merchandise exports are now rising again - but overall it's very much a case of slow progress here.