Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Wednesday, 11 November 2015

Bounce, c'mon bounce (22 month high)

Turnbull bounce continues

Roy Morgan Research released its weekly consumer confidence figures which showed that the so-termed "Turnbull bounce" is coming to fruition.

Consumer confidence rose again by another +1.2 per cent or +1.4 points for a reading 116.6, which is now a 22 month high and well above the long run average since 1990. 

The sub-index concerning the economic outlook for the next five years leapt by +7.5 per cent, while the sub-index for the next year's outlook was also up by +2.8 per cent.

According to Roy Morgan Research both of these sub-indices have jumed by +23 per cent since 8 weeks ago, a substantial turnaround.

While surveys can be a little volatile the result was mirrored by Westpac's consumer sentiment survey jumped by 3.9 per cent in November to well above 100 (101.7), also its highest result since January 2014 and 8.3 per cent higher than in September.

Westpac reported that Christmas spending plans showed their most encouraging result since this has question been included in the survey, a sign that low interest rates have eased the financial burden of mortgaged households.

Whether or not the boost represents a vote of confidence for Prime Minster Turnbull or a vote of no confidence in his predecessor is open to debate!

Job ads

Of course, consumer confidence can and will only remain above its long run average if consumers remain confident about their employment security, but there was also some heartening news this week from the ANZ job advertisements data series.

Job ads increased by a seasonally adjusted +0.4 per cent in October following a strong +3.8 per cent gain in September.

It's been a long, drawn out recovery, no doubt, but the trend estimate has now been rising steadily for 24 months, which bodes reasonably well for future employment growth, with ANZ considering that the unemployment rate may decline over the near term.

The Labour Force data will be released on Thursday morning (see my review of last month's report here).