Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Saturday, 24 June 2017

Weekend reads: Must read articles of the week

Summarised for you here at Property Update (or click the image below).


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Friday, 23 June 2017

Lower rates reducing mortgage stress

Mortgage stress declining

Roy Morgan reported from its survey of over 50,000 households per annum that those at risk of mortgage stress fell by some 78,000 from a year ago to 16.8 per cent, to sit well below the decade average.


Source: Roy Morgan

Those 'extremely at risk' also fell to the lowest level in well over a decade, which is good to see. 

The high risk cohort overwhelmingly comprises lower income households, and is far less represented by households earning $100,000 per annum or more. 

Record LNG exports in May

LNG ramp up

It looks as though the pace of iron ore and coal exports has slowed through to June.

Gladstone was getting back up and running again in May 2017, with 1.64 million tonnes exported.


Karratha fired back up after maintenance in April, while several new trains saw another massive expansion at Gorgon.

Exports were thus at a record high of more than 5 million tonnes in May.

And there's plenty more to come too, with Wheatstone (WA) getting in on the party from August onwards.

There's been a huge rebound in gas prices from a year ago, though prices seem likely to come under downwards pressure again towards the end of June.


Treasury had forecast that LNG exports would triple between 2015 and 2021, including well over 60 million tonnes of exports in FY2018.

At the current pace, and with Wheatstone still to come, this looks set to be achieved comfortably.


Australia median house price update

Heh...


On a more serious note, here's me in today's Sydney Morning Herald, discussing the today's population clock milestone and what it means for Australia. 

Australian population clock strikes 24.5 million

Population growth picks up

It was only in February last year that we saw the Australian resident population clock pass 24 million.

Today, the population clock quietly ticks past 24,500,000. 

The population clock presently assumes an increase of one person every one minute and 22 seconds.

Acceleration

The quarterly rate of population growth in Australia has picked up strongly again since bottoming out in early 2015.

In fact absolute population growth has been very strong since the mining boom, and has comfortably exceeded expectations before the Sydney Olympics.  

Versus the 1999 ABS forecasts the population today is 2.95 million higher than was projected at that time. 


That's not to decry the forecasts, which must be always be wrong to some extent.

Rather this is to show the potential scale of the impact from the mining boom on the creaking infrastructure deficit.

In particular the growth in population of the capital cities has far outstripped anything that could have been expected two decades ago, and projections expect this trend towards urban densification to intensify. 

Thursday, 22 June 2017

Sydney grinds towards full employment

Jobs growth picks up

If this blog has adopted a marginally more upbeat tone in recent weeks, then it's mainly due to improved labour force indicators. 

Total employment expanded by +234,740 over the year to May 2017, rising by +2 per cent - a pace of employment growth miles ahead of the rate of population growth - to a fresh high of 12.21 million. 


Having apparently threatened to stall, employment growth in 2017 is off and running again in Greater Sydney, where the total number of employed persons is up by +1.91 per cent over the past year, comfortably fast enough to keep the unemployment rate declining. 

Smoothing out the volatility on a 3mMA basis, we can see that the annual rate of employment growth in Sydney has been picking up again since January 2017. 


As a result the Greater Sydney unemployment rate was again reported at just 4.4 per cent in May.

The annual average unemployment rate in Sydney has been declining consistently since February 2014, suggesting that the harbour city is approaching so-termed 'full employment'.

Elsewhere, Hobart is tightening nicely, but Brisbane's labour market is evidently struggling to absorb new migrants as apartment construction gets set to fade. 


At the industry level healthcare and social assistance has seen a net increase in employment of more than +509,000 over the past decade, the ageing population accounting for strong stock price performance in that sub-index. 


The most contentious point is what happens from here to total construction employment, which remains heroically elevated at a fraction under 1.1 million. 

Maroons thrive

State of Origin - series level

A symbolic shift in momentum is last night's thriller of a big game?

New South Wales looked set to dominate the match throughout, but Queensland ended up snatching the spoils right at the death. 

For half a decade now Brisbane has lived firmly in Sydney's shadow on the economic front as the coal and LNG downturn has bitten hard. 

And there's no doubt that Sydney has been powering ahead with its infrastructure plans while Queensland has been languishing.

Yet the cyclical migration north is well underway now. 

If only Queensland's political leaders could show as much spirit as its footie team!