Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Tuesday, 21 November 2017

By popular demand

Cooler, shakier

Back in February this year I went to the auction of a house in Bondi that had no fewer than several dozen registered bidders, with the final two prospective buyers bidding hell for leather and sending the final purchase price well over half a millon dollars over the guide price. 


By the end of March the market regulator APRA had understandably seen enough of all that, and introduced a range of cooling measures, and by the second half of the year stock on market levels were rising quite quickly from previously depressed levels. 

Auctions were still being reasonably well attended, but often with only a handful of serious but cagey buyers at each auction the mood was much more circumspect. 

The shift from strong price growth to a cooling market wasn't driven by an increase in the dwelling stock, at least not directly (in fact the number of houses in many parts of inner Sydney is in decline), nor by a slowdown in population growth (if anything, it's accelerated in Sydney).

The change in sentiment instead reflected a change in the balance of willing and able market participants.

Actually, population growth is rarely very strong in much of the eastern suburbs of Sydney, since not very much tends to get built - it's hard for the population to grow faster than the number of dwellings given new builds are mostly attached dwellings.

Prices are still being driven by supply and demand, of course, just not in the way that market analysis often understands it. 

One of the more thought-provoking talks I've seen in recent times was delivered Scott Keck at Charter Keck Kramer, in which he discussed why Australia doesn't really have a meaningful oversupply of dwellings, and never will have. 


Of course, there can be a stock overhang when the market anticipates demand incorrectly - especially of big apartment blocks which take longer to build - but since projects that aren't selling don't get built, the impacts should be temporary. 

Well worth a watch, many thanks to Robert Baharian of Baharian Wealth for sharing it.

Wage curve ball

It's always a bit of a worry when analysis leans towards the view that the immutable laws of supply and demand don't work any more, and we've arguably seen a bit of that in relation to wages growth  lately (and, for that matter, inflation).

It wasn't that long ago that wages were absolutely belting along during the mining boom, but after just a few short years of low wages growth plenty seem to believe that this is the new normal, possibly forever. 

A buddy of mine in London recently told me he'd just received a substantial, six-figure golden handshake (bonuses...remember them?) for signing a new contract, something that was all but unheard of a couple of years ago.

But with the UK unemployment rate falling to 42-year lows, skilled workers are slowly but surely becoming harder to find again.

The challenge for Australia is that the unemployment rate is relatively speaking still quite elevated at 5.4 per cent, so there's probably a hefty amount of slack that needs to be taken up before we solid wages growth return.

At least things are heading in the right direction. 


For reasons that are hard to fathom, some commentators even believe that the Reserve Bank will hike rates while wages growth is tracking at just ~2 per cent, though I can't believe that for a minute. 

In the meantime, a number of lenders have been quietly lowering mortgage rates again, including for investors and interest-only loans. 

Monday, 20 November 2017

The car in front is an import

Shuttered

Automotive production continues to plummet, with annual volumes nearly 50 per cent below their December 2010 level, and falling fast, so the new car you buy next year will likely be made somewhere else. 


The Department of Employment projected that the factory closures at Elizabeth in Adelaide (Holden) and Altona in Melbourne (Toyota) could cost 27,500 jobs over the years ahead, leading some commentators to predict the end of days for Australia.

Indeed, some gloomy reports even speculated that the closures could snowball into hundreds of thousands of jobs losses, which always seemed a bit far-fetched given that the shutdowns have been discussed for years.

It was wise to be prudent and wait for the halting of operations to pass, which has now occurred, but if there were to be any earth-shaking initial impacts then they weren't yet in evidence in the October 2017 employment figures.

In the event, total employment exploded +355,700 higher over the year to October, sending the unemployment rate careering to a 4½ low, and with the ABS also now putting job openings at the highest level on record

Furthermore, the more timely SEEK job advertisements figures showed openings tearing 25 per cent higher in South Australia and 18 per cent higher in Victoria, so it's probably safe to say that the world hasn't ended for Adelaide or Melbourne. 

Interestingly some of the sectors creating tens of thousands of new job openings lately have included engineering, technicians, manufacturing, including machinery operators & drivers, trades & services, and transport & logistics.

Long term production employees at Holden and Toyota might have received a meaningful payout, potentially even providing a mini-boost to the local economies. 

"Pivot, pivot, pivot..."

There has been much criticism of the government for not propping up the loss-making auto assembly industry. 

Luci Ellis of the Reserve Bank of Australia rattled off the counter-arguments in a blazing speech on economic rationalism last week. 

There's no doubt that the auto industry is facing a fair amount of uncertainty and potential disruption over the years ahead. 

For example, a great deal has been made on the newswires this week of Tesla's forays into driverless trucks, electric vehicles, and "insane" roadsters.

Interesting stuff, though whether a company which has barely produced anything to date - let alone sustainable profits - will prove to justify a market cap north of US$50 billion (and an enterprise value of a baffling magnitude) can only be known in the fullness of time.

It's a good story, I'll grant it that!

Greatly exaggerated

For all the excitement of electric rigs and electric supercars that can accelerate ridiculously fast (albeit not on Australia's congested highways, lol), the death of the humble road vehicle has been somewhat exaggerated. 

Annual unit sales increased to 1,181,418 in October, marginally the highest result ever notched, powered by record Sports Utility Vehicle sales. 


At just under 99,000 the seasonally adjusted monthly sales were a little below the all-time monthly peak set last year, a fact which some have tried to claim represents stretched household budgets.

A more realistic narrative is that low interest rates and tax incentives pulled forward demand in New South Wales, where anyone and everyone considering purchasing a new vehicle must have done so in 2016. 


With more than 1.18 million sales recorded over the past year traffic congestion will get worse rather than better, adding to the urgency for the delivery of transport infrastructure projects, of which there are many now in the pipeline. 

A final observation, the trend in new motor vehicle sales in Western Australia has now been rising for 9 months consecutively. Western Australia saw 8,570 new motor vehicles sold on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, a solid increase of +8.2 per cent from a year earlier. 

While much commentary is focusing on more downside, a number of indicators are pointing towards brighter times ahead in the west. 

Sunday, 19 November 2017

Swiss cheesed

200,000 more Oz millionaires

2017 saw another large increase in global wealth, increasing by 6.4 per cent or (USD) $16.7 trillion to $280 trillion, driven by equity prices and non-financial assets, including housing.  

Global wealth is projected by Credit Suisse to hit $341 trillion by 2022, driven largely by rapid growth in countries such as China and India. 

The US continued an unbroken run of gains since the financial crisis in 2017. 

The Eurozone saw the creation of 620,000 new US dollar millionaires as the currency picked up, and Australia once again punched above its weight in adding a further 202,000 millionaires, taking the total up from 958,000 to 1.16 million. 

Switzerland's wealth per adult has increased by by a thunderous 130 per cent since the turn of the century in US dollar terms to $537,600, albeit largely due to shifts in the exchange rate, according to the Credit Suisse 2017 Global Wealth Report. 

Among the countries in the world with available figures over the long term, Switzerland stands alone in seeing no decline in wealth inequality over the past century. 

Home to just 0.01 per cent of the global population, Switzerland alone accounts for some 1.7 per cent of the top 1 per cent of global wealth holders, with several thousand ultra-high net worth individuals with personal wealth in excess of $50 million. 

Lucky country

Switzerland is something of an exceptional case as a tax haven, but next in line comes Australia with a mean wealth per adult of $402,600, partly driven by "high property prices in the capital cities", somewhat perversely.

Australian household wealth gains have averaged 12 per cent per annum since the turn of the century, and the average debt to assets ratio is surprisingly low at only 20 per cent. 

68 per cent of Australian adults have a net worth of above $100,000, which is some eight times the world average. 

Meanwhile, New Zealand's wealth per adult moved ahead of Norway into fourth place in 2017. 


Wealth inequality is relatively low in Australia, with a far smaller share of the population having a net worth of under $10,000 than the United Kingdom or US. 

Indeed, when measured in median terms Australia's wealth per adult of $195,417 is not too far off the highest in the world, with only Switzerland edging us out at $229,059. 

There are now 36 million high-net worth individuals in the world with a net worth of $10 to $50 million.  

Some 2 million of them are located in China - nearly 40 times as many as at the turn of the century - with a further 6.3 million in India and other Asia-Pacific countries.  

Perhaps not unrelated to this, Australia is projected to be home to 1.7 US dollar millionaires by 2022, up from 1.16 million today. 

Saturday, 18 November 2017

Drain the swamp

Swamp thing

Since the hiring freeze was lifted, Canberra has seen by far and way the strongest household income growth, with gross income per capita in the ACT up from $101,600 to above $110,000 over the past two financial years.

Nice work if you can get it!

At the other end of the scale household income per capita declined in Western Australia in FY2017, back to below the level seen in the 2014 financial year in nominal terms. 


Disposable incomes followed a very similar pattern, with Canberra absolutely miles ahead of the rest, by a magnitude of almost 50 per cent. 

Surprisingly the Northern Territory has been the strongest performer over the past five years in per capita terms, with disposable incomes rising by +24 per cent. 


Queensland incomes have really struggled since the peak of the resources construction boom in 2012, and income growth has been relatively modest elsewhere.

These numbers are derived from the state accounts, and as ever some household are faring better than others. 

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Heads up

Inward bound

As the economy and especially hiring have picked up, so too has immigration, with long term arrivals into Australia hitting a record high 777,440 over the year to September, for a year-on-year increase of +5.5 per cent. 


Lots of Aussies head overseas too, of course, though ABS research has found that long term departees commonly end up back in Australia pretty quickly. 

Short-term arrivals also hit a record high of 8.72 million over the year to September.

Although the pace of growth here appears to be slowing, the Aussie dollar is now declining again after a brief interlude, which should spur tourism faster, higher, and stronger in 2018.


Oh, and there's the Commonwealth Games boost to come next year too.

Uni corn

Drilling deeper into the figures, unsurprisingly education arrivals are at an all-time high.

The next big international student intake won't show up until the February 2018 figures, but 2017 has been a record year for enrolments, and no doubt a lucrative one.

If you've felt that the inner city centres have become busier in recent years, then you'd be right, with the international student phenomenon being largely an urban trend. 


The Reserve Bank's Luci Ellis highlighted in a barnstorming speech on economic rationalism this week how so many recent migrants arrive on student visas and then end up staying Down Under.

This is a boon for education exports, and then later represents a demographic dividend by providing a stream of qualified workers of a young age. 

The Ellis speech was an absolute corker and essential reading, showing how immigration can raise participation and average living standards, as well as explaining where future growth in the economy will come from.

Finally, annual short-term visitors from China boomed to 1,347,400, which is +13 per cent higher than a year earlier. 


Very strong numbers all round, and the next few years should now be characterised by a welcome surge in transport and infrastructure projects. 

Friday, 17 November 2017

Wanna be startin' somethin'

Northern Powerhouse

We all know that employment growth since the peak of the resources construction boom in 2012 has been all about Sydney and Melbourne.

Until now!

Queensland is suddenly off to the races, with trend employment growth blazing +4.62 per cent higher across the year to October, by far its strongest annual result since before the financial crisis. 


Of course, it's harder for the most populous states to record such a large percentage increase, but even so, this has suddenly become too big a move to ignore. 

Some questions we've not had to ponder too often in Queensland since 2007 include: where, why, & what are the new jobs? And will it continue?

Where? Pretty much all around the state, as I've looked at here previously (Queensland is the one mainland state where employment is not excessively capital city focused). 

Queensland is also coming from a relatively low base, after a rough trot, and much of the hiring has been part time in nature. 

The likely drivers of the upturn might range from a surge of Chinese visitors and the dollar-driven tourism industry, the commodity price rebound creating jobs upstate, a slew of public sector and NDIS hiring, and perhaps some late spillover or multiplier from the now-fading residential construction bonanza.

Agriculture exports have been strong, so that's another possible bright spot, plus some increased aggregate demand creating services jobs as interstate migration has picked up.

Just from driving around various parts of SEQ, there are evidently an awful lot of roads being built right now, while there are several significant infrastructure projects underway or about to commence in Brisbane.

SEEK...& ye may find

We'll get more detailed numbers in due course on the historic hiring.

But what of next year, will Queensland jobs growth be sustained or sustainable as we count down to the Commonwealth Games? 

The answer looks to be a qualified "yes".

SEEK's job advertisements data for October 2017 just showed Queensland ads pumping 19 per cent higher than a year earlier, which tends to be a decent leading indicator for hiring.

Notably, some of the most improved industries nationally included those which Queensland is heavily exposed to.


Early days, of course, but every good upswing had to start somewhere!

Thursday, 16 November 2017

This is how we do

Lucky 13

Another pretty good result for the Aussie economy, with total employment notching a 13th consecutive gain, the best stretch in 23 years. 

Headline employment growth was pretty modest, but there was another significant swing towards full time positions - with the economy adding +236,000 full time jobs since the beginning of the calendar year - and the previous month's result was also revised up, keeping the strong trend intact.


In fact, total employment was a massive +355,700 higher over the year to October 2017 for an increase of +3 per cent, way ahead of the growth in the working age population. 


The annual trend in hours worked was a solid +3.1 per cent growth, the strongest in 7 years.


And the unemployment rate continues to fall, down to a 57-month low of 5.4 per cent.


Hard to argue with those numbers. 

Magnetic north

Queensland added another +12,600 jobs in the month to see total employment lead the nation at +90,500 over the year, just ahead of New South Wales at +88,500. 

After several years of stagnation Queensland has recorded enormous employment gains in percentage terms, a huge synchronised upswing across the state taking the trend in annual employment growth up to a colossal +4.62 per cent. 

Many of the new jobs have been part time positions on a net basis, but Queensland was the only state to see its participation rate jump in October (from 65.5 per cent to 65.8 per cent), and unlike other states employment growth has not only been focused on the capital city. 

South Australia's unemployment rate has improved from around 8 per cent in 2015 to under 6 per cent. Jobs growth has been solid if relatively modest in the state, while declining participation and interstate migration to Melbourne and elsewhere have likely helped to pull down the unemployment rate a little.

In New South Wales the unemployment rate continues to trend down, now to a post-financial crisis low of only 4.71 per cent (and just 4.6 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms). 


Despite this, wages growth in New South Wales is still only tracking at +2.1 per cent.

Sco-Mo crows

This was a modest headline result, but with quite a few snippets of good news in the underlying figures.

If experiences overseas are a worthy indicator, then it'll take a while for unemployment to fall enough to see meaningful wages growth returning, but clearly things have been moving in the right direction. 

After a series of dire polling, Treasury's Scott Morrison was lightning quick to put out an upbeat announcement to note that upbeat jobs figures, um, do not need to be announced:

"Talking about jobs is not something we have to announce. It is just what we do."

Way to go, Sco-Mo...Katy Perry would be proud!